Exploring the value of regional decadal climate prediction for adaptation planning

On-going and future climate change threaten societies and communities around the world. Climate adaptation improves preparedness as one of two broad strategies (along with mitigation) for climate risk management. Informing the extensive preparations needed to manage climate risks, avoid damages, and realise opportunities, has given rise to a new transdisciplinary field called ‘climate services’. Climate services involve the generation, provision, and contextualization of information and knowledge derived from climate research for decision making at all levels of society.

Regional decadal climate prediction is a promising new area of climate science with considerable potential to benefit society. The scientific community is currently advancing the use of numerical models and assessing the skill of decadal climate predictions at global and regional scales. The Met Office is the acting World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction, producing the WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update. The timescales of decadal predictions match well the planning horizon of many organisations (1-5 years), yet their potential to inform decision-making has not been well explored.

The aim of this PhD studentship with the Met Office is to assess the value of regional decadal climate prediction in informing decision-making, focusing on the overseas aid and humanitarian sector. Using social science methods, the credibility, legitimacy, and salience of regional predictions will be assessed from a multi-stakeholder perspective. The project will build on past research undertaken by the PhD supervisors and the Met Office, focusing on two case studies from the humanitarian sector which could benefit from decadal predictions. The case studies will be determined once the studentship commences but are expected to build on the H2020 funded EUCP (European Climate Prediction) and FCDO funded WISER (Weather and Climate Information Services) Africa and Asia Pacific programmes coordinated by the Met Office, as well as the Horizon Europe funded ASPECT project that will improve seamless climate predictions covering the next 30 years to facilitate adaptation decisions. Supervisor connections to the World Climate Research Programme Regional Information for Society project, will provide the student with links to a wider international community focusing on robust climate information.

The work will be carried out in four stages:

1) Understanding regional decadal climate prediction (6 months):

The student will familiarise themself with the technological and scientific aspects of regional decadal climate prediction and services, including learning about the Met Office decadal forecasting system, DePreSys. The student will visit the Met Office in Exeter for a minimum duration of four weeks to interact with PhD supervisors Dr Joseph Daron and Nicola Golding and leading experts in decadal climate prediction. The student will also develop a broad understanding of the current limitations of decadal prediction with regards to application in decision-making.

2) Understanding decision-making contexts (6 months):

The student will be required to choose and develop an understanding of two case studies in the humanitarian and donor sector. Climate change is a leading driver of humanitarian need and human suffering, particularly for the poorest countries. The impacts threaten to deepen already wide inequalities, resulting in consequences felt by the world at large, including food and water insecurity, political instability, violence, and displacement. Leaps forward in science and technology continue to improve predictions and early warning of climate-related crises, shaping anticipatory actions and allowing faster action when disaster is about to strike.

3) Organisational decision-making and climate information (1 year):

The student will work collaboratively with an organisation in each case study (e.g., WISER partners, such as the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre or World Food Programme) to pilot the incorporation of annual and multi-annual climate forecast information into their decision-making processes. The Met Office will help facilitate the hosting of the student for some of stage 3 enabling the student to interact and collaborate with specific case study partners.

4) The value of climate information for decision-making (1 year):

The student will assess the value of regional decadal climate information for decision-making in the case studies selected and wider sector. This research will make use of qualitative and participatory approaches which allow co-evaluation with decision-makers. Using quantitative surveys, the student will assess if the value of the decadal climate information is scalable beyond the two case studies across the sector.