Adapting to climate change on subtropical reefs
| Subtropical reef ecosystems with coral communities differ from their tropical coral reef neighbours, as they are shaped by a biogeographical overlap of taxa at their range margins, endemic species and seasonal species assemblages (Sommer et al. 2014). Tropical species are starting to change the biological communities living on high-latitude reefs from kelp communities to barrens and coral communities (Verges et al. 2014) resulting from range shifts and the expansion of endemic species (Figueira and Booth 2010, Yamano et al. 2011, Baird et al. 2012) (Figure 1).
Subtropical cool reef communities are shaped by highly seasonal marginal environmental conditions (Nozawa et al. 2008, Yamano et al. 2011, Beger et al. 2014, Muir et al. 2015), and undergo fast transformations as warming continues. For example, communities change along the tropical to temperate gradients according to their traits for Scleractinian corals (Sommer et al. 2014, Chong et al. 2023), molluscs (Floyd et al. 2020) and fishes (Clay et al. 2023, Clay et al. 2024). Therefore, quantifying the drivers of community assembly on subtropical reefs is an important prerequisite to predict how high-latitude reefs may be affected by climate change, and to develop conservation plans (Beger et al. 2014, Makino et al. 2014). The management and conservation of subtropical and temperate reef ecosystems is challenged by the dynamism of the environment, and changes in community structure that already affect industries. For example, Japanese temperate fishers complain about the loss of their target fish as kelp habitats decline and are replaced by barrens or coral habitat. Protected areas have the potential to delay tropicalisation (Bates et al. 2014), and there may be options to protect sites that experience least change, or where change that is predicted to occur fits conservation objectives (Beger et al. 2014). Yet, in practice, these predictions are highly uncertain at scales relevant to management, and different climate scenarios may result in drastically different conservation priorities (Makino et al. 2015). AIM. This PhD project aims to overcome some of the unknowns associated with reef tropicalisation across multiple taxa for a case study area in Japan. In particular, the student will quantify the ecological and functional implications of community transformations for habitat builders (corals, algae, soft corals) and associated taxa (fishes, molluscs, echinoderms). The student will apply advanced modelling tools to understand, quantify, and predict these transformations over space (tropical to temperate environmental gradient) and time (past decade, into the future). The student will then apply this new quantitative understanding towards developing new conservation theory that can be applied to work towards adapting to community transformation. The project takes a theoretical and quantitative approach, however the opportunity for fieldwork may arise. The student will work with an extensive international team in the UK and Japan, and there is considerable potential for developing the PhD in a number of directions. Depending on the interests of the successful candidate, specific objectives could include: 1. How do biophysical and biological drivers of range shifts influence ecological and functional community outcomes along a tropical to temperate environmental gradient and over time? 2. How will future assemblages change given tropicalisation? This work will involve predicting species-level and functional group level distributions into the future to examine if tropicalisation is dominated by range shifting or increasing abundance of endemics. 3. What is more important in tropicalisation: stochastic events (storms, heatwaves) vs continual warming or biological pressures? 4. How can range shifts and community reassembly under climate change be incorporated into spatial management to adapt to such changes? SIGNIFICANCE. The focus on marine ecosystems experiencing range shifts and community transition on high latitude reefs is a highly original topic, giving this project the opportunity to contribute to shaping the field. The interdisciplinary approach involving experts in the disparate fields of physical sciences, ecology and conservation science, and its novel combination of existing datasets will allow to advance our ability to manage these ecosystems. There is the expectation that this work will directly affect marine conservation in Japan. TRAINING. The project offers the unique opportunity to develop an interdisciplinary knowledge base encompassing, marine ecology, climate dynamics, conservation science, and offers specialist training in: · scientific programming skills for processing and visualising large datasets; · skills in spatial conservation decision making and commonly used decision support software; · developing and implementing a new conservation framework with international applicability. You will also have access to a range of training workshops that cover technical and broader professional development skills and you will present your research at international scientific conferences. You will benefit from expertise within the School of Biology, and from being a member of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds, a globally leading centre for climate research. As part of the Centre you will benefit from bespoke training opportunities, visits from world leading researchers and a vibrant interdisciplinary cross-campus student environment. These experiences will put you in a strong position to pursue a successful career in conservation and quantitative ecology. ENTRY. A first degree (ideally 1st), Masters degree (ideally distinction) or equivalent relevant to quantitative ecology and conservation science; and a strong interest in inter-disciplinary research. Skills or interest in quantitative approaches and marine ecology are important, as is a passion for conservation progress. Advanced SCUBA diving qualifications would be a bonus. |
Figure 1. Ecosystem change of temperate reefs in Tokyo Bay, 2015 to 2023.
| REFERENCES.
Baird, et.al. 2012. Pole-ward range expansion of Acropora spp. along the east coast of Australia. Coral Reefs 31:1063. |