YES-27-A-23: Investigating how diverse forest and tree-based systems influence local climate and community resilience in rural Tanzania

Tropical forests play a critical role in regulating local climate through temperature moderation, rainfall generation, hydrological cycling, and buffering communities against climate extremes (Seymour et al., 2022). Evidence from South America demonstrates that forest loss can increase temperatures up to 100 km from the site of deforestation, alter rainfall patterns, and reduce water availability (Butt et al., 2023; Smith et al., 2023), with important implications for rural livelihoods. However, substantial knowledge gaps remain in tropical Africa, where agricultural expansion continues to drive deforestation and landscape change (Doggart et al., 2020), reshaping relationships between forests, farming systems, and climate. Empirical evidence remains limited, and little is known about how diverse forest and tree-based systems influence local climate and community resilience.

These gaps are important as many African landscapes comprise mosaics of mature natural forests, plantations, agricultural fallows, other regenerating forest systems and cultivated land. Agriculture-induced deforestation, forest persistence and forest regeneration often co-occur within landscapes. However, there has been little research on how these land-cover dynamics affect local climate and related livelihood outcomes (Doggart et al., 2026). The role of regenerating forests in agricultural fallows and small-scale agroforestry that constitute a substantial proportion of forest cover in many African landscapes (Doggart et al., 2023) and may provide important climate-regulating, biodiversity, and livelihood benefits (cf. Milheiras et al. 2022) are particularly understudied.

Developing the scientific basis for understanding these contributions is critical because climate resilience underpins rural livelihoods (Mwasha & Robinson 2021; Gaworek-Michalczenia et al. 2022). Changes in temperature, rainfall, and water availability influence agricultural production, resource use, and responses to climatic uncertainty, yet little is known about how forest-mediated climatic effects shape adaptation strategies, land-use decisions, future aspirations and expectations. Understanding how natural, regenerating and agro-forests influence local climatic conditions, including extreme events, and how households perceive and respond to these effects, is therefore important for informing policy and practice.

This interdisciplinary PhD will investigate how natural, regenerating and agro-forests contribute to climate resilience and livelihood adaptation in Tanzania by integrating forest-climate science with social-science approaches to environmental change and decision-making. Building on preliminary collaborative research undertaken with communities and the NGO, the Tanzania Forest Conservation Group, in Lindi Region, the project will combine in situ environmental monitoring with remote-sensing land-cover and climate datasets to examine how forest-cover dynamics influence local climatic conditions. Attention will be paid to differences between forest types and their interactions with surrounding agricultural systems. Quantitative analyses will be complemented by qualitative and participatory methods, such as life-history interviews, livelihood diaries and community visioning exercises, to investigate how forest-mediated changes in rainfall, temperature, and water availability shape adaptation strategies, land-use decisions, aspired and expected futures.

By linking ecological change, climatic regulation, lived experiences of adaptation and futures thinking, the project will advance understanding of how diverse forest and tree-based systems contribute to long-term social-ecological resilience.

 Aim: To investigate how diverse forest and tree-cover types influence local climate and community resilience in rural landscapes of Tanzania.

 Research Objectives:

1. Evaluate the effects of different forest and tree-cover types on local and regional climate across forest mosaic landscapes in Tanzania.
2. Investigate local perceptions and experiences of interactions between forests, environmental change, and climate variability.
3. Analyse how climate-regulating services provided by natural, regenerating, and agroforestry systems shape livelihood adaptation strategies, land-use decisions, future aspirations and expectations.

This research builds on research and collaboration developed during the LONG FALLOWS Project implemented in Lindi Region of Tanzania IMG_5286

References

Baker, J.C.A. & Spracklen, D.V. (2019). Climate Benefits of Intact Amazon Forests and the Biophysical Consequences of Disturbance. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 2, 47. https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2019.00047

Butt, E.W., Baker, J. C. A., Silva Bezerra, F. G., von Randow, C., Aguiar, A. P. D., & Spracklen, D. V. (2023). Amazon deforestation causes strong regional warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 120(45), e2309123120 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2309123120

Doggart, N., Morgan-Brown, T., Lyimo, E., Mbilinyi, B., Meshack, C.K., Sallu, S.M. & Spracklen, D.V. (2020) Agriculture is the main driver of deforestation in Tanzania. Environmental Research Letters 15: 034028. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6b35

Doggart, N., Mugasha, W.A; Mpiri, A., Morgan-Brown, T., Sallu, S.M. & Spracklen, D.V. (2023) Agricultural fallows are the main driver of natural forest regeneration in Tanzania. Environmental Research Letters, 18, (5), pp. 054008 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/accbd6

Doggart, N.H., Spracklen, D.V., Reddington, C.L., Butt, E.W., Cuthbert, R.J., McEvoy, M., Meshack, C.K., Nawaz, M.A. & Pandey, M. (2026) The impact of tropical forests on local climate: Comparing recent research with conservation practitioner information priorities. https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pan3.70375

Gaworek-Michalczenia, MF., Sallu, S.M., Di Gregorio, M., Doggart, N. & Mbogo, J. (2022) Evaluating the impact of adaptation interventions on vulnerability and livelihood resilience. Climate and Development, 14, (10), pp. 867-883 https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2021.2018987

Milheiras, S.G., Sallu, S.M., Loveridge, R., Nnyiti, P., Mwanga, L., Baraka, E., Lala, M., Moore, E., Shirima, D.D., Kioko, E.N., Marshall, A.R., Pfeifer, M. (2022) Agroecological practices increase farmers’ well-being in an agricultural growth corridor in Tanzania. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 42, (4) https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13593-022-00789-1

Mwasha, S.I. & Robinson, Z. (2021) Building Livelihoods Resilience in the Face of Climate Change: Case Study of Small-Holder Farmers in Tanzania, in African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation. Springer https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42091-8_49-1 Seymour, F., Wolosin, M., & Gray, E. (2022) Not Just Carbon: Capturing All the Benefits of Forests for Stabilizing the Climate from Local to Global Scales. World Resources Institute https://doi.org/10.46830/wrirpt.19.00004

Smith, C., Baker, J. C. A., & Spracklen, D. V. (2023). Tropical deforestation causes large reductions in observed precipitation. Nature, 615, 270-275 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05690-1

Further reading

Durrant, E., Howson, P., Sallu S.M., Shirima, D.D., Lala, M., Milheiras, S.G., Lyimo, F., Nyiti, P.P., Mwanga, L. Kioko, E., Pfiefer, M. (2025) Understanding farmers’ attitudes and aspirations for tree-cover restoration in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania. Forest Policy and Economics, 172. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103452

Makale, A.R., Uisso, A.J., Doggart, N.H., Kabanza, A.K., Amanzi, N., Nguya, N., Kilawi, A.O., Idrisa, R., Nyuni, R., Mayanga, H., Mpakulo, H., Mpakulo, E.A., Ayasi, M., Mpanda, S., Sallu, S.M. (2026) Swidden is an undervalued agroforestry system for the suppression of agricultural weeds: evidence from Tanzania. Agroforestry Systems 100, 257 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10457-026-01631-3